Altered TCG is about to finish its massive record breaking kickstarter campaign. The game has attained, the most funded TCG in kickstarter history by significant margin at this point. As in other kickstarter campaigns, early adopter/supporter of the game gets some perks/saving. In this case, the main value/saving is on the display box as they are limited to kickstarter, and have special treatments when compared to retail display box. So let’s take a look at how much saving we are actually making.
*This is not investment guide.
Assumptions
There are several assumptions are made for today’s analysis.
- Retail booster pack price is simply display box MSRP/# of packs
Depending on the demands, the retail box may be selling higher or lower than MSRP, and also individual pack may have higher MSRP. However, in this analysis I have simply assumed MSRP of retail display box and divided it by 36 packs. So each booster pack is assumed to be €4.00. - Binomial distribution of Golden Pack
Golden pack is the final stretch goal, kickstarter special. With 1 in 250 chance, you could have a booster pack containing 10 unique cards and 4 unique card foilers.
In order to calculate the probability/average number of golden pack you get in a given booster box, we need to decide which distribution model to use i.e. hypergeometric or binomial.
The former is like a drawing card. We assume when a pack is opened, remaining packs won’t be replaced. With this assumption, there is technically increased probability of second back being a golden pack if the first one was not golden pack. The latter assumes every time you open a pack, new one is introduced to the pool with 1 in 250 chance.
Although which one is more accurate assumption should depend on how golden packs are produced and distributed, the end result here looked relatively similar. With hypergeometric assumption, I get 0.15 golden pack per display box while binomial is 0.14. So I just chose binomial # to take more conservative estimate.
*Statistics was my least favorite math subject so hopefully I won’t be too off here. - Non-quantifiable items
There are a few perks in kickstarter booster box that are not quantifiable at this time. These include followings:
- Foil version of heroes
This is not available from retail booster packs. However, given every kickstarter pack will have 1 foil hero, there should be plethora of these cards on secondary market. So I do not believe these have much significant value . - Promo
These are alternative art of heroes. In Altered core set, these are the hardest chase. I expect these cards to have the highest market value digitally and even physically. However, I do not know how much they will be.
Here I have also used binomial distribution for their pull rate. With it, these cards pull rate were calculated to be 0.41 in a display box whereas in hypergeometric assumption, 0.52. The number is more different than the golden pack. - KS edition logo
This indicates “alpha” or “first print” equivalent in Altered. Again, the value of this is uncertain.
4. No value common.
As in other games, I have assumed no value in commons.
Facts
Below are basic numbers. Some are copied directly from kickstarter top page, and others are calculated based on those numbers.
| % Gold Pack | 0.4% |
| % Unique per KS Pack | 16.7% |
| % Unique per retail pack | 12.5% |
| % Promo per KS Pack | 1.4% |
| % of exlucsive common | 60.0% |
| % of exclusive rare | 24.0% |
| % of exclusive unique | 1.8% |
| # of rare | 324 |
| # of unique arts | 109 |
| # of promo | 18 |
| # of exlucsive common | 12 |
| # of exclusive rare | 12 |
| # of exclusive unique | 12 |
| # of rare/KS pack | 3.84 |
| # of rare/retail pack | 2.88 |
| % specific rare/KS pack | 1.19% |
| % specific rare/retail pack | 0.89% |
| % specific unique/KS pack | 0.15% |
| % specific unique/retail pack | 0.11% |
| % specific promo/KS pack | 0.08% |
| % specific exlucsive common | 5.00% |
| % specific exclusive rare | 2.00% |
| % specific unique | 0.15% |
On the last alternative art (exclusive) unlock update, Equinox calculated exclusive unique pull rate as 1.84%. This is different from 1 in 800 for each unique AA. So I have done reverse math, and this looks to be now 1 in 650 for any one of exclusive unique. I am not sure same boost has been applied to % exclusive rare in actual product.
Display content comparison
| KS Box | Retail box | KS Bonus | |
| Rare | 142.08 | 103.81 | 38.27 |
| Unique | 6.17 | 4.5 | 1.67 |
| Foil Hero | 37.00 | 0 | 37.00 |
| Promo* | 0.40 | 0 | 0.40 |
| Exclusive common | 22.20 | 0 | 22.20 |
| Exclusive Rare | 8.88 | 0 | 8.88 |
| Exclusive Unique | 0.68 | 0 | 0.68 |
| KS Stamp | ◯ | X | |
| Gold Pack* | 0.14 | 0 | 0.14 |
| # of cards | 518.00 | 504 | 14.00 |
| # of Pack | 37.00 | 36 | 1.00 |
Analysis
Now, the purpose of this analysis is not for investment but instead to look for how much we can actually save when compared to buying retail product. So we need the reference number, which is retail box and booster pack prices.
| Retail Pack Equivalent | € | |
|---|---|---|
| Rare | 13.27 | 53.09 |
| Unique | 13.33 | 53.33 |
| Gold Pack | 11.03 | 44.10 |
| # of Pack | 1 | 4 |
The table above converted each extra rarity card to booster pack # equivalent and € equivalent assuming each pack is €4.00.
Each rarity values are not additive because if you have 13 extra packs to get those extra rares, they could also contain 1 extra unique. On the other hand golden pack is its own.
Additionally, kickstarter display has €15 discount from the MSRP. There is extra 1 booster pack, €4 value, in KS booster box; however, the content of this is already included in the statistics for extra rare, unique and potential golden pack winning. So I am excluding this for final calculation.
So overall, kickstarter display box additional value should be estimated as 53 + 44 + 15 = €112(US$121).
Display box value ≠ Actual content value
It’s important to note that display box value is not same as actual content value. Once you open booster packs, the value is determined by what you pulled. For those of you who have played any TCG before knows that marjory of time, opening a booster pack result in less than booster pack cost content. This is just natural economy. If you can get more than what you buy majority of time, everyone get infinitely rich.
Not investment guide
Also, I would like to re-emphasize, this is not an investment guide. I have nothing against those who use TCG as investment. I can personally see the positive influence some can bring into the game. However, these numbers I have calculated today are in reference to MSRP.
If Altered is proven to be so popular and people believe kickstarter box have more value than MSRP such as potential chance of winning promo, first edition stamp and so on, the actual value would be much higher.
On the other hand, if retail product goes far lower than MSRP due to oversupply, then what is calculated here would be proportionally less for € value.
Complete Set Analysis
For those of you interested in how many packs or booster boxes you need to complete the playset of high rarity cards, I’ve calculated them as follows.
| # of variants | # of playset | % per pack | # of pack need | # of box | |
| Rare | 324 | 3 | 1.19% | 253.1 | 6.8 |
| Unique | 109 | 1 | 16.67%* | 527.4 | 14.3 |
| Promo | 18 | 1 | 0.08% | 1296.0 | 35.0 |
Combined specific regular unique and unique exclusive.
| # of variants | # of playset | % per pack | # of pack need | # of box | |
| Rare | 324 | 3 | 0.89% | 337.1 | 9.4 |
| Unique | 109 | 1 | 0.11% | 872.0 | 24.2 |
These numbers assume there is no duplicate. Obviously, this is nearly statistically impossible. However, I hope there is relatively easy 1 to 1 same rarity trade through official app, especially initially the game does not have competitive play data/utility so I am hoping most people are going for collection.
Conclusion
In conclusion, not surprisingly as in many other kickstarter campaign products, Altered TCG KS display boxes are great value for those who wants to play with these as soon as possible. You can save quite a bit of money by purchasing these right now than waiting for retail. As a player, when adding potential chance of winning promo, you get almost double value on these than buying at retail in the future.
If you are reading this after kickstarter campaign ending and you feel like you’ve missed out, do not be discouraged. My guess (at this point) is you have not missed out as much as some other games. Other than 18 highest chase promo and first edition stamp, everything else will still be obtainable from retail boxes. The actual price difference between retail vs. kickstarter boxes are only €15. Since many cards from kickstarter are expected to go on trade in official market as soon as they become available, you may even be able to save money by buying singles just in any other TCG.
Reference
Altered™ is a registered trademark of Equinox. Altered™ and all associated images are copyright© Equinox. All rights reserved.