In digital card game, if one really needs a full playset of cards (4x each) is question of its own, but it is one way to look at compare/analyze the game’s cost. Since MTGA does not allow individual card purchase or trade, if one wants to make any kind of deck, complete playset is what you may need. With recent addition of Mythic Pack back in March 2022, Magic Arena’s playset price got significantly lower. Let’s take a close look.
Facts
- Each booster pack cost $1
- Each mythic pack cost $1.30
Assumptions
- Ignore rate of Rare Wild card in place of Mythic card in Mythic Pack
I assume this is low enough occurrence and the worst case, one just need to buy additional couple more packs i.e. $5-$10. - Duplicate protection ensures “no duplicate” rare/mythic beyond 4 copies
Mythic Booster packs ensure that the card in the rare or mythic rare slot is always a mythic rare (unless it is replaced by a wildcard). These should help collectors who have completed their collection of rares for a set but are still missing mythic rare cards.
MTG ARENA ANNOUNCEMENTS, MARCH 30, 2022
How many booster packs?
In magic online or physical game, we can purchase individual cards so buying booster is not the best way to complete playset. However, magic arena does not allow such option. So opening booster pack is primary and practically only way to complete set.
If we had a booster pack system analogous to magic online or physical game, there is a chance to get duplicate i.e. beyond 4 copies of cards. This would result in significantly higher number of packs needing to complete playset than just total number of required rarity cards. Fortunately, Magic Arena has duplication protection system (ref).
Each booster pack contains the highest rarity cards, mythic rares in usually 1 in 7 chance on booster packs. So in a typical card games, acquiring playset of the highest rarity cards determines the overall number of booster packs needed because by the time you complete the highest rarity cards playset, you have enough for lower rarities. In a case of Magic Arena, the recent addition of Mythic pack made this significantly easier.
So in the case of Magic Arena, we need to look at both rares and mythic rares.
Minimum number of booster packs we will need is number of rares in a set x 4 (R). For example, in Street of New Capenna (SNC) this is 60 x 4 = 240.
Mythic Rare Rate
However, when 240 packs are opened, you have will have Mythic Rares instead of Rare at the certain rate (MR).
MR = M / (M + 2R)
where M is # of mythic rares in a given set and R is # of rares in a given set.
For SNC, MR is 1/7. Therefore, out of 240 packs, 240 x 1/7 = 34 will be mythic rares. In another word, 240 pack will still be missing 34 rares. So this needs to be factored in.
Wildcard Wheel
Another factor is what’s called wild card wheel. In Magic Arena, opening each booster pack fills wildcard wheel. This is defined as following.
The smaller of the two Tracks gives you uncommon wildcards every time it’s completed, while the bigger of the two Tracks alternates between giving you rare and mythic wildcards. You’ll get four rare wildcards the first four times you complete the Track and then it’ll switch and give you one mythic wildcard before restarting and cycling through again.
DraftSim – MTG Arena Wildcards: How to Get Them and The Best Ways to Use Them
Basically, we get extra rares and mythic rares based on number of booster packs opened via Wild Cards. This is at fixed rate as below.
- 4/30 x BP rares
- 1/30 x BP mythic rares
The wheel system works on the Mythic packs as well. So the system equation we need to solve are:
R = Booster Pack Draw + Wild Cards from Wheels = BP (17/15 – MR) + 2/15 x MP
M = Booster Pack Draw + Wild Cards from Wheels + Mythic Pack Draw = BP (MR + 1/30) + MP x (31/30)
Using linear algebra, this can be solved with two
Booster Packs (BP) = (31/30)xR – (2/15)xM
Mythic Packs (MP) = (17/15-MR)xM – (MR+1/30)xR
MR is Mythic rare rates, M is playset numbers of Mythic rares, and R is playset numbers of rares. So for SNC, 1/7, 4×20 = 80 and 60×4=240, respectively.
Plugging in above numbers will give result of
237 booster packs and 37 mystic packs for SNC set.
For the simplicity, one assumption made here is that each mythic pack contain only mythic rares or wild card of mythic rare. In reality, you may pull rare wild card instead. However, I assume that this is relatively low in frequency so even at the worst case, we just need to add couple more mythic packs to make it up i.e not significant.
At this point, the cost will be 237 x $1 + 37 x $1.30 = $285. This is essentially the highest price one needs to pay to get playset.
Pre-Mythic Packs
Prior to having mythic packs, mythic rares must be pulled from regular booster packs. This means we needed to buy significantly more booster packs.
BP = M / (MP + 1/30)
This equates to 454 packs in a case of 20 mythic rare set like SNC.
Free to Play Component
Unlike Magic Online or Physical game, Magic Arena can give significant amount of free booster packs and mythic rare cards by playing. After all, this game is considered free to play. Let’s take F2P components and other cost saving game element.
Mastery Pass
First is progression system called Mastery Pass. As you play, you can level up. When you level up, you get certain rewards. This includes up to 36 set booster packs. This is $36 saving.
When optional $17 mastery pass is purchased, you get 10 Mythic Card rewards i.e. essential equivalent in value to the Mythic pack, 3 more current set booster packs, 1 draft token (4 booster packs equivalent), 1200 gems ($6 equivalent) and 4000 golds ($4 equivalent). Additionally, it provides many cosmetic add-ons and older set booster packs. So this is really a great value and I highly recommend anyone who is thinking to play MTGA frequent enough.
Since current analysis is focusing on completing playset of the CURRENT set, we ignore older set booster packs. Even with this, $17 mastery pass add-on will will get you $30 worth products i.e. $13 additional saving.
So mastery pass system alone can give $49 saving.
Reference: Draftsim Is the MTG Arena Mastery Pass Worth it?
Draft Play
Draft is one of best way to build collection. This is true for several reasons.
Rare Draft
Personally, I do not recommend this, but if you try to pick rares rather than thinking making the best draft deck, you could pick up 4 rares instead of 3 when opening 3 packs.
Discounted Packs
Draft can be more economical way of getting boosters than purchasing booster packs even if you cannot win any game.
For example, quick draft costs 750 gems and it gives total 4 booster packs and 50 gems even if you do not win a single game. In fact, there is even 1 in 5 chance, you could win extra booster pack. This means $3.50 provides 4.2 packs i.e $0.83/pack*. At this rate, 280* packs cost $232.
*Draft booster packs do not fill wild card wheel. So number of packs need is R / (1 – MR).
Going Infinite
The real value of draft comes from rewards when you can win the game at decent rate. Depending on your winning rate, different draft can give you different amount of rewards. It is possible to go infinite with draft i.e. after initial spending you keep winning high enough rate, the reward will allow you go to play another draft from the previous draft rewards. How much benefit you get here depends on your skill level.
Daily/weekly rewards
Separate from the mastery pass, daily and weekly rewards can give you “gold” which can be used to purchase booster packs and play draft etc. Although there are daily and weekly caps, Magic Arena seems to be fairly generous here if you are willing to play every day to cap.
- Daily quests can give 500 or 750 golds (once per day)
- Daily wins can give up to total 750 golds.
- Weekly wins can give up to 3750 golds.
Assuming 30 days and 4 weeks per month with each set lasting 3 months, you can potentially receive 157500 to 180000 golds depending on 500 vs. 750 daily quest rewards*.
You can re-roll daily quest once per day to increase the number of 750 golds daily quests but certainly it is not possible to do all 750 golds quests.
One booster pack can be purchased by 1000 golds so we are talking about 157-180 booster packs equivalent here. Even if you didn’t push yourself to the limit, there is still a good chance you get 50-100 free booster packs worth of gold by periodical play.
References:
Promotion
The last piece is promotion/discount.
For example, pre-release bundle packs can save $7.50 each i.e. $15 for the case of SNC if you purchase both prerelease bundles. The game store can have decent sales e.g. 400 gems for 300 gems (only one purchase).
Overall, we are looking at $64 saving by purchasing both pre-release bundles and optional mastery pass and completing it.
How much?
So how much are we really looking at?
Upper limit
In a case of SNC set, if one goes solely with purchasing booster packs i.e. max investment, approximately $285.
Practical Cost
If you purchase pre-release bundles, and complete mastery pass the above number goes down to $221.
While competing mastery pass, you will naturally complete many daily and weekly quests/wins. This can give significant amount of additional free boosters i.e. saving. If you become decent draft player, that can also reduce cost.
For average players, who wants to complete playset and spend (hopefully enjoyable) times in Magic Arena, I believe it will be safe to assume $150-$250 range.
For average players, $150-$250 for complete playset
Lower limit
If you are willing to invest in time and complete all daily and weekly challenges, you can get up to 150-180 booster packs for free (other than your time). Adding mastery pass (free one) on top, you are already looking at almost 220 free booster packs.
You can complete the missing piece by putting real money perhaps like purchasing pre-release bundle, or mastery pass optional add-on. This will require merely $50-$100.
However, if you start to get decent winning rate on drafts, you may be able to get $50-$100 worth of golds/gems. So the lower limit for this game is could be complete to near complete free for full playset.
Comparison
Vs. Pre-Mythic Pack Era
Without mythic pack, if one tries to get full playset solely thru booster packs, $454. However, mastery pass gives guaranteed 10 mythics ($70 pack equivalent) and additional another 53 packs total (just current set booster packs). So $123 for $17 i.e. $106 saving.
So in pre-mythic pack era, mastery pass ($17) purchase and completion of it will cost $348. Adding more economical option of playing drafts, earning daily golds for more packs/draft play, I’d estimate for average players pre-Mythic era, it costed $300-$350.
Therefore, introduction of Mythic Pack has $100 (25%) saving.
Vs. Magic Online/Physical Card
Magic Online has redemption system i.e. complete set can be traded for physical cards. This usually costs ~$125-150 including shipping and handling within US. So playset will be $500-$600. So from the complete playset point of view, Magic Arena is somewhere between 2-4x cheaper than the Magic online if you are looking for complete playset.
Conclusion
As a digital only card game, I think Magic Arena has manage to achieve a sweet spot. If one desire to put time but no money, this game is capable of getting you full playset without spending a penny so long as you can complete all the quest every day and have reasonable draft skill.
If someone is too busy and really just want to play games occasionally but wanting to still complete playset, one can spend $150-$250.
If someone is in between i.e. willing to spend some money while don’t want to make grinding as a job, one could purchase $100 on prerelease bundle with periodic play and that could have good chance to complete playset.
This is not only good for players saving money but also maintaining player population. I’ve seen so many digital trading card games that lost player population, and unable to find match when I want.